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COP29: Can global leaders cool the climate crisis?
On this week's episode of What's at Stake, Senior Partner Andy Whitehouse speaks with Marie Donnelly, Chair of Climate Change Advisory Council Ireland and Senior Advisor to Penta, and Director Liza McIntosh about what to expect from COP29—the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference—which begins today in Baku.
Together, they discuss the critical agenda items facing world leaders and organizations as they gather to tackle climate change. From ambitious climate finance targets to bold resilience initiatives, Andy, Liza, and Marie break down the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead for a low-carbon future. They also unpack what a second Trump presidency means for climate policy—both in the U.S. and abroad.
Tune in for this timely discussion to understand what's truly at stake as COP29 shapes the future of climate action amid new geopolitical tensions.
Hello everyone and welcome to this week's episode of what's at Stake. I'm your host, andy Whitehouse, a senior partner here at Penta in New York, and I'm joined today by two very special guests to talk about what we can expect from COP29, the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference, which starts today, november 11th, in Baku. Cop29 is an annual meeting where countries, corporations, social sector organizations and others gather to discuss global efforts to tackle climate change and advance towards the net zero economy. It's one of the world's most significant gatherings for climate action, with plans negotiated and formally agreed between the participating countries. Given the ongoing urgency of climate action, cop29 is expected to spotlight geopolitical tensions, funding commitments and technological innovations that could help shape a low-carbon future. Our wonderful guests today will help us unpack what's at stake for the global community.
Speaker 1:So joining me in this conversation is Liza McIntosh, a director in Penta's New York office, who works with our clients here across the climate and sustainability space. Liza is also currently on secondment to the Sequoia Climate Foundation, though she'll only be speaking on behalf of Penta in our conversation today. Liza recently addressed New York Climate Week at an event hosted by Teconomy and Worth Media Group, where she discussed, amongst other things, climate commitments and competitive sustainability. Welcome, liza. And we're also joined today by Marie Donnelly, senior Advisor to Penta, who is based in Ireland. Marie has more than 30 years of experience working for the European Commission, most recently as Director for Renewables, energy Efficiency and Innovation. She currently serves as the Chairperson of the Climate Change Advisory Council in Ireland. Welcome, marie, thank you.
Speaker 3:Thanks Andy.
Speaker 1:Lovely to see you both, so let's get into the conversation. So first of all, question for Marie what do you see as the primary goals, and maybe the world's expectations, for the COP29 meeting that's starting today?
Speaker 2:Well, andy, the COP29 has been billed as a finance meeting. It's all about money. It's not the first time COP will discuss money, because back in Copenhagen some years ago, a target of $100 billion a year was set as an objective. That objective was not met by the deadline of 2020, but it was met by 2022. But the new target, what's called the new collective quantified goal very simple, easy to remember name actually is setting a really ambitious target of $1 trillion a year and going up, so it is enormous. It will be a very difficult discussion and that's very pivotal to what COP 29 is all about. But it's not just money, because COP 29 also has the task of confirming some of the agreements of earlier COPs, so, for example, reducing emissions.
Speaker 2:It's very important that at this COP, the ambitions of the participating countries, the 198 participating countries, is made visible and loudly clear, because the new, what we call the NDCs, the National Ambitions, needs to be submitted by February of next year. These are updates on the previous ones. Previous ones, I have to say, were not going to achieve the kind of temperature control that we wanted. So the hope is that the ambitions will be higher and better and faster this time, so as to keep global temperature under control. A third and very important aspect, of course, is to confirm the targets of previous COPs, for example, increasing energy efficiency across all of our activities and also increasing investment in renewable and sustainable energy sources. And the good news there is that, for the first year ever, last year, investment in renewable and sustainable energy was higher than investment in fossil fuels, and there will be many aspects to that to be debated on this occasion. You know the new energy storage and grid pledge, hydrogen declaration, a green digital action declaration, for example, on the information communication technologies, and also a reduction of methane from organic waste. So these are very practical, very real issues that will be debated, confirmed from previous COPs and developed on this occasion.
Speaker 2:A new element has been there but hasn't been center stage up until now is the question of resilience, and this is a challenge for all of us, but it's particularly important on this occasion to look at it from the perspective of farmers. Hydrogen water, shall we say, water quality and water availability, ecosystems and also the human development skills necessary to deal with climate change. So these and a number of other actions in the space will be debated at COP. The issue, I think, and the challenge that we're facing on this occasion is that this COP falls between the troika of the United Arab Emirates last year, troika of the United Arab Emirates last year, azerbaijan this year and Brazil next year.
Speaker 2:Some reluctance from groups that this is yet again a petrochemical location for COP. There are also expectations that the attendance level will be lower on this occasion, as much because of limited capacity as anything else and, as a consequence, the authorities in Azerbaijan are trying to encourage more to come and giving more access to people, particularly from the Global South, to participate in events on this occasion. So, all in all, a lot of issues on the agenda. Some very tough discussions and negotiations will take place and, fingers crossed, we get a good outcome from it.
Speaker 1:Wonderful. Thank you, Marie, for that terrific overview. Before I come to Liza for a question, can you just give our listeners a flavour for what it's actually like at a COP meeting? What does it feel like to be there? What is the structure of the meeting in terms of what you do all day? How does the thing actually play out?
Speaker 2:So I'm sure the listeners will have gone to trade exhibitions, you know, where you have enormous halls full of stands from companies and demonstrators and whatever. So it's a little bit like that, but you have what's called the blue zone. That, but you have what's called the blue zone. Now, the blue zone is where all of the negotiators from the participating countries 198 countries meet more or less all day. It's a closed room, albeit it's enormous as a room, as you can imagine, to hold everybody, and this is where each of the countries and their negotiators will sit down and go through the text of what the conclusion is likely to be, and there will be a lot of discussion, down to the point of full stops, commas, apostrophes. It's really, really detailed stuff and this will certainly take the two weeks and on previous occasions has gone on for an extra two or three days.
Speaker 2:Then you have what's called the green zone and that's really where the exhibitors are, if I could say so. You'll have country stands, you'll have company stands, you'll have NGOs and environmentalists will have stands. You'll have short thematic sessions where people will discuss one or other topic, as the case may be. You'll have invited speakers from all over the world who will come and who will participate. Lots of coffee stations, as you can imagine, for people to sit and have a chat and to go through things. It's a big, big networking occasion in the green zone. So it's one thing you absolutely need for COP and if you ever see it on television, just look at the shoes that people are wearing. There's a lot of walking. You need very comfortable shoes when you go to COP.
Speaker 1:It sounds like a fortnight that really must test the stamina of everybody that's involved. And speaking of stamina, liza, we've just come to the end of a year of lockdown elections in many countries around the world, including, most recently, the election that took place last week in the United States and you and I are both in the US. I was interested to hear your thoughts on how this election, or indeed some of the other elections that have happened this year, might impact the discussions in Baku.
Speaker 3:Thanks, andy. The world is trying to understand what a second Trump presidency means for climate policy, both at home and abroad. Think about this moment at COP where, as Marie has just told us, countries are literally sitting around tables trying to figure out how to fund this massive climate challenge. And now there's this new uncertainty in the room. The US, the world's second largest emitter, was supposed to come forward next year with this big plan to cut emissions. It's called a Nationally Determined Contribution, or an NDC, and, as Marie reminded us, it's a vital part of the Paris Agreement. That's all up in the air now because and this is important Trump has already said that he wants to leave that agreement again. What really strikes me, andy, is how this is happening at a time when COP 29 was already losing steam, with American leaders. President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken aren't planning to be there. And when you look at the financial world these major players like Bank of America, blackrock, deutsche Bank they're staying away too too.
Speaker 1:Thanks, liza. So I imagine, marie, that the Europeans, and in particular the European institutions, will be really well represented at the meeting in Baku. So how should our listeners be thinking about the likely approach that the European Union will take to this year's COP? European Union will take to this year's COP, and how do you feel the Europeans might approach the task of influencing other parts of the world in the context of the negotiations you described in the blue zone?
Speaker 2:Well, in the EU, of course, we've had what we call the European parliamentary elections and the new college and, in fact, the new college will not be in place in time for COP29. So it will be the existing college that will go, although, of course, the new European Parliament is already in place and I think it's fair to say that the guidelines for Europe are well established. They were set out under the European Green Deal, which was very much a headline activity of the previous commission. Almost 20 pieces of new legislation adopted in order to move Europe forward in that direction. So Europe will certainly be going with that message, with what we've done. Europe also has to gather all of its member states together in terms of combining their ambitions and will present a united European Union pledge.
Speaker 2:Ultimately, in the EU NDC coming forward, europe will be represented at a number of locations.
Speaker 2:For example, our own minister, eamon Ryan, will be chairing the climate resilience talks with Costa Rica.
Speaker 2:So you will see the Europeans very active and I think it's fair to say that the key message coming out of a new college, new European Parliament, is one of sustainable competitiveness.
Speaker 2:It's going to be a big topic, of course, with the new president in the United States, of course, as well.
Speaker 2:Global trade, international trade but for Europe, it's about sustainable competitiveness, going forward, and this is what Europe wants to demonstrate to others that it can be done in a developed economy, can be done successfully without costing economic growth or, indeed, negative impacts on the population, that we can actually reduce our emissions. We have a target for 2030 and we're just about on the point of now looking at a target for 2040. And as part of doing that, of course, from the European Union perspective, we're very conscious of the fact that we cannot leave others in the world behind that there are other parts of the world that are suffering even more than we are currently with climate change and that we need to contribute to the climate finance globally and, for example, in 2021, europe contributed 23 billion euro to this global effort to facilitate particularly the global south, and we'll continue to support other parties in terms of their endeavour and the actions that will be necessary to take to combat climate change.
Speaker 1:Thank you, marie. Thank you, liza. Let's take a quick break. I'm going to go and dig around in my closet to see what shoes I'd be taking Tobacco if I was going to be there this week, and we'll be back for some more questions in a second. Hello everyone, and welcome back to what's at Stake, a Penta podcast. I'm here with Liza McIntosh and Marie Donnelly talking about the COP29 meeting that opens today in Baku. So, liza, next questions for you, if that's OK. I wanted to ask you a little bit about climate commitments and targets and to get your take on the degree to which these matter if those setting targets whether it's countries or even companies, I guess are struggling to meet them. What are some of the indicators we should be watching for during the meetings over the next couple of weeks to gauge, to assess, the success of COP29.?
Speaker 3:The World Economic Forum has identified four priorities for COP29. If we track them closely over the next couple of weeks, we'll get a sense for whether or not the summit is making progress. First, climate finance. There's this term you might not have heard before the NCQG. It stands for the New Collective Quantified Goal. It's a pretty sophisticated financial framework that's giving the name to as Marie has already explained what's being called the finance cop. The idea here is to determine precisely how developed nations will fund climate action in developing countries after 2025. But here's what's fascinating Even the fundamental components are under debate.
Speaker 3:We're talking about target amounts, which countries should contribute, the scope of qualifying climate finance, and there's this delicate balance that they're trying to strike. The framework needs to be technically robust enough to work at scale, while still being inclusive of both developing nations and private sector perspectives. There's something else that's crucial here, too making sure that everyone follows through. They need a way to track this money, to know it's actually doing what it's supposed to do. Second big priority Article 6. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement is basically the rulebook for carbon markets and how countries can help each other meet their climate targets. Now, while they settled on the basic rules at COP26, they still need to figure out exactly how to make it all work in practice.
Speaker 3:Two COPs have come and gone and, while there have been some smaller deals between countries, we haven't seen the kind of scale everyone was hoping for.
Speaker 3:And timing is crucial because, as companies face more scrutiny about their climate promises even backing away from banner pledges having a real working carbon market within the UN climate framework matters more than ever. The loss and damage fund the amount currently pledged to the still forming loss and damage fund is tiny compared to estimated loss and damage needs worldwide. Before being able to grow that amount to anything meaningful, the fund needs to check off a couple of boxes quickly. They need to figure out how the private sector might be involved and this is really important. They need to decide how that money will actually flow. Will countries have to go through a long process to get funding for specific projects, or will it work more like what climate campaigners want, where, if a climate disaster hits, a trigger is released and money can reach affected countries quickly? The fourth and final priority is about adaptation helping countries deal with climate changes that are already happening. Adaptation has sometimes been overshadowed by mitigation, but it is crucial as climate impacts worsen. Cop 29 is a pivotal opportunity to prioritize adaptation and secure the necessary resources.
Speaker 1:Thanks, liza. It sounds like just an enormous agenda for the next two weeks and sort of a challenging agenda, sort of simultaneously on each of those four fronts that you laid out. So a huge amount for the negotiators to get done. But as we're thinking about that enormous agenda and many of the people who listen to our podcast work inside corporations or social sector organizations and they're probably wondering what does this all mean for me and for the organization that I work for? So this is, I think, a sort of final question, perhaps for you both for you Marianne, for you Liza, perhaps for you both for you Marie and for you Liza I'd be interested to hear what you think this all means for, perhaps, a typical corporate client of Penta. How will the COP, in your view, shape the way that corporations are thinking about sustainability, the net zero economy and these huge challenges that we're facing around around climate change?
Speaker 2:Maybe if I could come in on that one, andy. I think, whilst what Lisa was explaining there sound like very high level government to government negotiations, I think, when you bring it back down to the corporate level, certainly for the larger companies, virtually all large companies have come out with a sustainability motto. Some of them have come out with net zero targets for 2030 or whatever the case may be At a very practical level, there are a couple of things coming down the track that really do impact on corporates. I think the first one is and there has been questions raised about this until now anyway one is, and there has been questions raised about this until now anyway is the whole question of how real is their sustainability, how real are their sustainability credentials, and that has been challenged not just in Europe but indeed elsewhere, and one of the issues that's coming down the track is a new piece of legislation in Europe coming down for next year called the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, and this will require companies, particularly large companies, to set out what it is they see are the risks and opportunities arising from the climate change, but also not just how does climate change affect them. They're also required to say how they impact climate change, which is perhaps a much harder question to answer, and companies will be required to report on this on an annual basis. So the sustainability claims of particularly large companies will need to be backed up with hard data coming from their own internal analysis and published in this format.
Speaker 2:And a second one and this we're hearing more and more from the financial and indeed the insurance sector is the material risk of climate change. The reality is that it's going to impact not just the future direction of business, but also what are the current critical risks coming from climate change and Lisa was saying there with regard to adaptation what are the consequences, what are the material damages that companies could face and what are they doing to minimise them? This might be threats to their own infrastructure, floods, storms and other things where their own production capacity might be adversely affected, and therefore the banks and the insurance companies want to know about it. So I think it's fair to say that it's a kind of an inside out revelation of what's going on. But what's the threat from outside, what's happening inside and what are companies doing about it?
Speaker 3:Going back to Marie's point just now about climate risk disclosure, many companies either have headquarters or operate supply chains in developing economies. These companies need two things to happen they need these countries to be able to shift away from fossil fuels in the relatively near term and they need them to be able to handle climate impacts that are already occurring. One final point the funding for cutting emissions, what they call mitigation finance, can actually create this ripple effect for businesses. When developing economies can build better power grids and switch to renewable energy, companies can see their costs go down and find it easier to meet their climate commitments.
Speaker 1:Wonderful. Thank you ever so much, marie. Thank you, liza, for this incredibly helpful briefing on what must be the most important conference happening in the world this year. I can't think of a more important topic for us to discuss today, and I'm very relieved and grateful that you're both spending your time working on seeking to tackle all of the effects of climate change that we've talked about today. Thank you to our producer, jennifer Lee, for making today's podcast possible, and thank you to our listeners. Please remember to like and subscribe to what's at Stake. Wherever you listen to your podcasts, you'll also find us on LinkedIn at Penta Group. I'm your host, andy Whitehouse, coming to you from Penta's office in New York, as always. Thanks for listening to what's at Stake and we'll see you soon.